Part II: Barack Obama wins popular vote. McCain wins electoral college and Presidency

There are other reason why I am 100% sure that Barack Obama will win the popular vote but John McCain will win the electoral college and the Presidency. The Obama camp might not want to get too ahead of itself after reading the poll numbers. There are a number of the organizations in this election that are weighting their polls differently, i.e. different demographics of those surveyed, because they believe the huge increase in voter registration will effect the election. Is that solid thinking? No, it is not. Registering to vote is one thing. Actually voting is another. The demographics that they are using to skew these polls are the same demographics that Barack Obama is counting on to win this election. There is a problem with those demographics. The people Obama is counting on are the people that are the least likely to actually vote!

In a recent ABC News/Washington Post Poll:

Voters age 18-29 went for Obama 66% to only 30% for McCain.
PROBLEM: That same poll found that only 46% of voters 18-29 were "certain to vote".

Democratic voters went for Obama 81% to only 13% for McCain.
PROBLEM: That same poll found that only 66% of Democrats were "certain to vote" while 83% of Republicans were "certain to vote". Republicans support McCain 85% to 13%.

In a recent poll by the Pew Hispanic Center:

Hispanic voters went for Obama 66% to only 23% for McCain.
PROBLEM: Hispanics turn out to vote at only a 47% rate compared to 63.8% for the full population.

So, what is my point? My point is that 3 of the 4 demographic segments that support Obama the most, and that he is counting on most, are traditionally the lowest ranking segments of the population when it comes to voter turnout. Will they show up?


One must also add, the exposure of Acorn(Obama supports Acorn to the tune of $800,000.00 in donations and they support him in return) as a corrupt organization(allegedly) and the ruling tonight that the Democratic Secretary of State of Ohio is breaking federal election laws, to the Bradley effect, the issue of race, and this look at voter turnout by demographics. When I add all of it up I get a win for McCain in November even if the national polls still show Obama leading all the way up to election day.

Dirtying Up Obama

The above ad does something that a lot of people have been waiting for the McCain camp to do for a long time...show the real Barack Obama(as they see him). This ad is obviously negative and is in the tradition of political mud slinging but it is also something that may be very effective against Barack Obama. The truth is a lot of voters do not know much about Obama. The more that can be dug up from his past to fill in the blanks for voters(whether it be all true or not), the more the Republicans will be able to define him. Not to mention that these ads are not lies. Obama did associate with everyone named in this ad and he has been seen by a number of people as skirting the issue when asked about these associations. The more the Republicans can make "Obama the unknown" into "Obama the dangerous", the easier they will win this election.

It goes against the purpose of this blog but the truth is negative ads work. If I was advising John McCain I would tell him to push these horrible associations in Obama's past that lead one to question Obama's judgment and the persona the DNC has built him into. Call him on his association with ACORN(have you watched the news? voter fraud?), Reverend Wright, Tony Rezko(felon), Father Pfleger, and William Ayers(domestic terrorist). The beauty of attacking him on all these associations is that it is all true! He can not deny knowing and/or working with everyone I listed. He will down play how close he was to these people or organizations but he can not say that someone linking them to him is immoral or wrong. He is linked! So, is Barack Obama a radical social activist who the DNC packaged as an agent for change while trying to hide his obvious warts and questionable past? Or is he truly what he says he is? The more the Republicans get people to ask themselves those questions...the more people will go with the safe choice..... John McCain.