Part II: Barack Obama wins popular vote. McCain wins electoral college and Presidency

There are other reason why I am 100% sure that Barack Obama will win the popular vote but John McCain will win the electoral college and the Presidency. The Obama camp might not want to get too ahead of itself after reading the poll numbers. There are a number of the organizations in this election that are weighting their polls differently, i.e. different demographics of those surveyed, because they believe the huge increase in voter registration will effect the election. Is that solid thinking? No, it is not. Registering to vote is one thing. Actually voting is another. The demographics that they are using to skew these polls are the same demographics that Barack Obama is counting on to win this election. There is a problem with those demographics. The people Obama is counting on are the people that are the least likely to actually vote!

In a recent ABC News/Washington Post Poll:

Voters age 18-29 went for Obama 66% to only 30% for McCain.
PROBLEM: That same poll found that only 46% of voters 18-29 were "certain to vote".

Democratic voters went for Obama 81% to only 13% for McCain.
PROBLEM: That same poll found that only 66% of Democrats were "certain to vote" while 83% of Republicans were "certain to vote". Republicans support McCain 85% to 13%.

In a recent poll by the Pew Hispanic Center:

Hispanic voters went for Obama 66% to only 23% for McCain.
PROBLEM: Hispanics turn out to vote at only a 47% rate compared to 63.8% for the full population.

So, what is my point? My point is that 3 of the 4 demographic segments that support Obama the most, and that he is counting on most, are traditionally the lowest ranking segments of the population when it comes to voter turnout. Will they show up?


One must also add, the exposure of Acorn(Obama supports Acorn to the tune of $800,000.00 in donations and they support him in return) as a corrupt organization(allegedly) and the ruling tonight that the Democratic Secretary of State of Ohio is breaking federal election laws, to the Bradley effect, the issue of race, and this look at voter turnout by demographics. When I add all of it up I get a win for McCain in November even if the national polls still show Obama leading all the way up to election day.