Part IV: Barack Obama wins popular vote. McCain wins electoral college and Presidency.

The race is getting closer and there are some trends that spell doom for Barack Obama! In the last few weeks there has been a 20 point closing of the gap, with voters 18-30 years old, in favor of McCain. There has been a 16 point closing of the gap, with voters 30-45 years old, in favor of McCain. There has been no change with voters 45-65 years old and among voters 65+ years old, Obama has moved ahead by 11 points. What does all this mean?

• The changes with voters 18-30 and 30-45 show that John McCain's attacks on Obama as a tax and spend liberal are working. People from their mid-20s to their mid-40s are historically more concerned about someone raising their taxes.
• The lack of change with voters 45-65 shows they might just have made up their minds.
• The change in favor of Obama with voters 65+ show that Obama's attacks on McCain, which link him to President Bush's Social Security Reform, are working.

What do all these things mean when put together?

They show that the race is tightening and that a number of people are becoming wary of Barack Obama's and Joe Biden's many gaffes and unpopular statements of the last month. Hardworking Americans do not like to hear, "Spread the wealth". People do not like to hear, "Paying taxes is patriotic". People are also starting to wonder why a year ago Obama said rich was someone making more than $1 million a year, then a few months ago said rich was $250k, then Biden said it was $150k, and now Bill Richardson, the governor of New Mexico and a supporter of Obama, says it is $120k? Even if those changes are not really changes in policy and/or are taken out of context and/or anything else that Obama's campaign wants to use to defend them...it does not matter! Perception is reality and you can not erase those statements from this campaign. They are there and no amount of explaining will make them go away and people will decide on their own what they mean.

How do these changes support my contention that Obama will win the popular vote but McCain will win the electoral college and the Presidency?

These changes back up my prediction by showing that Obama is vulnerable. My assertion that people will be scared away from Obama the closer they get to actually having to vote for him, also has weight. Lastly, I actually take the 11 point swing towards Obama, with voters 65+, as a positive for McCain. McCain will not do it, for his own reasons, but a group called GOPTrust.com is going to saturate all the swing states with an ad about Reverend Wright. This ad will have the most effect on voters 65+, they are more likely to be patriotic and should be more sensitive to anti-American sentiments and racial issues, thus negating the only positive trend that Obama has in the closing weeks of this election.

Dirtying Up Obama

The above ad does something that a lot of people have been waiting for the McCain camp to do for a long time...show the real Barack Obama(as they see him). This ad is obviously negative and is in the tradition of political mud slinging but it is also something that may be very effective against Barack Obama. The truth is a lot of voters do not know much about Obama. The more that can be dug up from his past to fill in the blanks for voters(whether it be all true or not), the more the Republicans will be able to define him. Not to mention that these ads are not lies. Obama did associate with everyone named in this ad and he has been seen by a number of people as skirting the issue when asked about these associations. The more the Republicans can make "Obama the unknown" into "Obama the dangerous", the easier they will win this election.

It goes against the purpose of this blog but the truth is negative ads work. If I was advising John McCain I would tell him to push these horrible associations in Obama's past that lead one to question Obama's judgment and the persona the DNC has built him into. Call him on his association with ACORN(have you watched the news? voter fraud?), Reverend Wright, Tony Rezko(felon), Father Pfleger, and William Ayers(domestic terrorist). The beauty of attacking him on all these associations is that it is all true! He can not deny knowing and/or working with everyone I listed. He will down play how close he was to these people or organizations but he can not say that someone linking them to him is immoral or wrong. He is linked! So, is Barack Obama a radical social activist who the DNC packaged as an agent for change while trying to hide his obvious warts and questionable past? Or is he truly what he says he is? The more the Republicans get people to ask themselves those questions...the more people will go with the safe choice..... John McCain.