Part III: Barack Obama wins popular vote. McCain wins electoral college and Presidency.

I have been saying for weeks that Obama would win the popular vote by the largest amount by any candidate that did not win the election. Why is this? People are focusing on the national poll...that poll does not matter. That poll shows the popular vote and the popular vote does not decide the Presidency. One must look at the state polls to find out who will be President.

In Part I and Part II of this post I stated that the polls are wrong by a large percentage this year because of the Bradley Effect(there will be a Bradley Effect in these swing states), the polls are weighted heavily Democratic(because these poll takers are guessing how new voter registration will effect the election), military members are polling at 3 to 1 for McCain(and they are not included in national or state polls), and the last effect will just be straight racism. I add these factors together and I come up with my own, Wookie Effect. This effect predicts that Obama is polling 8% too high(2% Bradley Effect, 2% racism, 0.05% military vote, 3.95% poll weighting).

Obama has these states in the bag:
California(55)
Oregon(7)
Washington(11)
Minnesota(10)
Wisconsin(10)
Illinois(21)
Michigan(17)
New York(31)
Maine(4)(not winner take all)
Vermont(3)
Massachusetts(12)
Rhode Island(4)
Connecticut(7)
New Jersey(15)
Delaware(3)
Maryland(10)
District of Columbia(3)
Hawaii(4)
Obama has 227 electoral votes if he carries all these "solid" blue states.

McCain has these states in the bag:
Idaho(4)
Utah(5)
Arizona(10)
Wyoming(3)
South Dakota(3)
Nebraska(5)(not winner take all)
Kansas(6)
Oklahoma(7)
Texas(34)
Arkansas(6)
Louisiana(9)
Mississippi(6)
Alabama(9)
Tennessee(11)
Kentucky(8)
South Carolina(8)
Alaska(3)
McCain has 137 electoral votes if he carries all these "solid" red states.

These are the so called swing states:
Nevada(5) Obama +1.5 adjusted McCain +6.5
Montana(3) McCain +5.6
Colorado(9) Obama +5.4 adjusted McCain +2.6
New Mexico(5) Obama +8.4 adjusted Obama +0.4
North Dakota(3) Obama +2 adjusted McCain +6
Missouri(11) Obama +2.7 adjusted McCain +5.3
Indiana(11) McCain +3.8
Ohio(20) Obama +2.8 adjusted McCain +5.2
West Virginia(5) McCain +5.6
Virginia(13) Obama +8 adjusted EVEN
North Carolina(15) Obama +1.5 adjusted McCain +6.5
Georgia(15) McCain +6.8
Florida(27) Obama +2 adjusted McCain +6
New Hampshire(4) Obama +9.4 adjusted Obama +1.4
Pennsylvania(21) Obama +11 adjusted Obama +3
Iowa(7) Obama +11.8 adjusted Obama +3.8
There are 174 electoral votes up for grab in these "swing" states.

After adjusting the totals from the polls(270 to be elected):
Obama 259 electoral votes
McCain 261 electoral votes
Too close to call Virginia(13) and New Mexico(5)


So, by my calculations the person who wins Virginia wins this election. After I adjust the polls, Virginia is even with Obama 48.8% McCain 48.8%. Virginia is the key boys! Winner take all!